Sunday, October 21, 2007

Don't Fret Reps...2008 is Our Year

I know what everyone has heard. Our fundraising is down. The base is sour on the Reps over spending, Katrina, illegal immigration, and Iraq. Republican Representatives and Senators are retiring and quitting left and right. The generic Congressional ballot has Dems up about twelve percent. Everyone is down and they need not be. Here is why

1)Iraq...This is the main reason for Republican's being sour and Democrats being energized and I believe by this time next year it will be the exact opposite. While the media refuses to report on the progress, it is there, it is measurable, and even though the MSM refuses to report on the progress the general public notices it more and more everyday.

Here is essentially what happened. About a year ago, the Sunni Sheiks sick of the unbelievably sadistic, evil, and heavy handed manner in which AQI treated their own citizens, turned on AQI and began working with the coalition. It is now commonly referred to as the Anbar Awakening and it has worked fabulously. The city of Ramadi has been completely transformed. It has gone from one of the most violent cities not only in Iraq, but frankly in the world, to one of the safest cities in Iraq. As AQI was defeated in Anbar they tried to regroup in other places like Diyalah. This time the coalition, using their new grassroots methods, followed AQI to Diyalah. As a result, AQI is on defense, and their ability to cause death and destruction is way down. This led directly to troop and civilian deaths being down dramatically in September. They are down even more so far in October. For instance, while there were just over 60 troops killed in Iraq in September and this was down almost 30% from August, the number of troops killed from September 15-October 15 was only 30. In fact, we are on pace for about 25 troop deaths in the month of October.

Now, as AQI, the Sunni militia, was being destroyed, this lead directly to the beginning of the destruction of the Shia militias. The Shia militias used to be the only effective method of protecting the citizenry against Sunni militias. With Sunni militias neutralized, the citizens feel a lot less need for protection. Now, they see the Shia militia members for the evil humans that they are.

So, where are we? We are at the beginning of the end of all the bad guys in Iraq. As I refer to it, this is the classic divide and conquer strategy. Thus, while the Dems continue with their defeatist attitude, the reality on the ground is the exact opposite. There is still plenty of work to do however we are winning, and by this time next year victory will be at hand. Thus, once the reportage catches up, and it will, the defeatism of the Democrats will paint them as the weak on defense party that they are.

2) George Soros. Anyone who has read my work knows that this radical is trying to buy the 2008 elections for the Democrats and then wants to use that victory to change America radically. His minions like and Media Matters have found their way into forefront of major stories recently. As a result, the cover which Soros used to enjoy is now being removed. Soros is a radical individual. He is essentially a Socialist though he refers to his economic philosophy as wanting a "mixed economy". He is a radical seculary progressive. He would like a radical gay agenda, drug legalization, abortion on demand, euthanasia, all removal of religion from the public square, as well as aggressive tolerant education. In fact, one only needs to look at San Francisco, and its own radical social agenda, to see what America would look like if Soros ever realized his vision. On foreign policy, he believes that the war on terror has been used by the Bush administration as a guise to expand its own empire and as an excuse to start wars. In fact, he doesn't even see the GWOT as a war, and believes the proper way to deal with our enemies is to negotiate with them. He thinks that Iran and Syria should both be negotiated with unconditionally.

Whether it is economic, social, or foreign policy, it is nothing short of uncanny how similar the Democrat's agenda is to Soros'. From universal health care, the rejection of even a ban on partial birth abortion, giving homosexuals the same civil rights as blacks, women, and older folks, to the promise of unconditional negotiations with Iran, the two agendas cross all spheres of political debate. This is no accident. and its ideological partner Daily Kos have each accounted for millions in the coffers of Democrats. Groups like Media Matters, Americans Coming Together, and Center for American Progress (all groups in one way or another linked to Soros money) are all run or linked to Democratic heavy weights. For instance, Harold Ickes, former White House staffer in the Clinton White House, runs ACT. John Podesta, another WH staffer under Clinton, runs CAP. Hillary Clinton once bragged this about Media Matters...

putting together a network in the blogosphere and a lot of the new progressive infrastructure, institutions that I helped start and support like Media Matters and the Center for American Progress…”

Wherever you look the link between the Democrats and Soros is everywhere.

3) Hillary Clinton. She is a polarizing figure and the Dems have no idea what they are about to get themselves into when they nominate her. Clinton continues to have unbelievably high unfavorability ratings. They already approach 50% and the Democratic field has treated her with relatively kid gloves. That won't happen in the general election. Rudy Giuliani has already made a pillar of his Republican primary platform to go after Clinton. That will only be ratched up. Furthermore, Clinton is saddled with many scandals that have been glossed over by the MSM. Some are more recent like Norman Hsu. Some are older like Peter Paul. Some are brand new like the scandal involving poor immigrants from China Town. They all, especially with the plethora of scandals she has already been involved in, goes to paint a picture of a corrupt individual who will sell themselves to anyone that will help her gain power and ultimately be beholden to the same individuals if she ever gets into office. Here is what she said vis a vis special interest groups at Yearly Kos,

Because you know, a lot of those lobbyists, whether you like it or not, represent real Americans. They actually do.

She has a quasi socialist economic policy. In fact, she was once famously quoted as saying this,

shared responsibility for shared prosperity

and this,

on your own" society that has widened the gap between rich and poor.
"I prefer a 'we're all in it together' society,"

I firmly believe that once Hillary is exposed for the Socialist that she is most Americans will reject her vision.
Finally, on foreign policy, she has no firm position. She has gone from hawkishly behind the war to dovishly for pulling out and everything in between. She has already flip flopped on Iran. She went from being against unconditional talks to being for unconditional talks in only a matter of months. As Charles Krauthammer pointed out, she has no principles and will do or say whatever she thinks the public wants to hear at any given time. While this maybe an effective strategy now, it won't work as well in the general election. As evidence, I want to reference this poll (now normally I hate polls, however given the current up trend this one is quite interesting) Here it is.

A leaked Democratic poll has suggested that Hillary Clinton, the frontrunner in the race for the party's presidential nomination, could lose the 2008 election because of her "very polarised image".

The survey by the Democratic pollsters Lake Research indicated that both Mrs Clinton and Barack Obama, second in the Democratic race, trailed Rudy Giuliani, the Republican front runner, in 31 swing congressional districts.

Remember, this poll is taken while all the supposed trends are up for the Dems. I believe that will be much different in six and nine months. Hillary is not built to beat Rudy among moderates. He is socially liberal. He is more experienced, more charismatic, and he stands firm on the issues. While she has her admirers, those come mostly from the liberal end of the sphere. She won't be able to fool moderates into believing she is one of them. She has a thirty year plus record of being consistently way left.

4) My favorite Reagan quote...that is

the nine most terrifying words in the English language are 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help'

This is the response to just about any Democratic economic policy initiative. Imagine in a debate, Hillary Clinton goes through, in detail, her plan for making sure that everyone is covered through some form of Universal Health Care, and her opponent says this,

You know listening to the Senator, I can't help but remember an old quote of Ronald Reagan's that I like, 'the nine most terrifying words in the English language are 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help'. That is what I am thinking right now. The Senator thinks every personal problem can be solved by the government and frankly I get terrified when someone thinks like that.

That would not only be the line of the debate, but frankly put everything she wants, is, and is trying to accomplish in a whole new and very negative light.

5) The only polls that count. That is the election poll. So far, there have been two elections. One was won overwhelmingly by a Republican, and in another, the Republican did much better than anyone expected. In Louisiana, Bobby Jindal not only won, but got more than fifty percent in a multi person field and thus won the election out right even though most times the first election leads to a run off in Louisiana. In Massachusetts, Jim Ogonowski lost on 51-45 to Nikki Tsongas despite Tsongas not only having name recognition but being in an overwhelmingly Democratic district.

For these five reasons, I believe that we need not fret Reps...2008 is our year.


Anonymous said...

OK, well in response to this, here are some reasons the Republicans SHOULD be worried about 2008:

1. Despite her negatives, Hillary Clinton still consistently leads all republican challengers in the polls, and she leads Thompson and Romney by double digits.

2. Republicans have already abandoned the candidate who does the best against Hillary in head-to-head polls: John McCain.

3. The 2nd best choice for beating Hillary, Rudy Giuliani, is a social liberal who would divide the party and probably provoke the social conservatives to run a third party candidate, which would remove any chance of him winning.

4. Even without a third party candidate, Giuliani would still lose badly to Clinton in the electoral vote, based on current polling. Here's what the electoral votes would look like based on the most recent polls from Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, and Quinnipiac University:

Clinton 365, Giuliani 173
Clinton 346, Thompson 192
Clinton 377, Romney 161
Clinton 328, McCain 210

5. As you mentioned, the Democrats lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot by double digits. In addition to this they're trusted more than Republicans on almost every issue:

6. As you alluded to, Democrats have outraised the Republicans by about 50% so far in 2007, but what you might not know is that the situation is even worse for Republicans in terms of cash on hand. Here are the current numbers:

Democratic Presidential Candidates - $110,874,675
Republican Presidential Candidates - $42,929,904

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee - $22,900,000
National Republican Senatorial Committee - $8,300,000

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee - $28,300,000
National Republican Congressional Committee - $1,600,000

7. In terms of retirements, 5 of 5 Senate retirements so far, and 12 of 14 House retirements, have been Republicans, and even more Republican House members are expected to announce their retirements in the coming months. Hence, the Republicans are going to have a ton of open seats to defend.

8. In terms of the war in Iraq, the situation has improved because we have more troops there now, but those extra troops will no longer be there at the time of the election. Once they’re gone, you can expect the violence to start heading upwards again, and it should also be noted that despite the recent good news the percentage of Americans who support withdrawing the troops is still continuing to increase in most polls. And the polls show Americans supporting the Democrats on both Iraq and Iran by significant margins.

9. In terms of Bobby Jindal’s win in Louisiana, enjoy it while it lasts, because you won’t be able to celebrate much after Nov. 6th, when the Democrats win the governor’s race in Kentucky. (Polls currently have the Democrat leading by a good margin.)

So yes, I think the Republicans have a lot to worry about.

mike volpe said...

You certainly said a mouthful. Iraq is going better because of great counter insurgency strategy. Extra troops is only part of it and they won't be necessary since there won't be many insurgents left a year from now. As for polls, I don't care what the polls say a year out. Rudy is a paradigm and he can beat and will whether there is a third party candidate. Generic polls are meaningless. Cash on hand is almost as meaningless at this point in the campaign. An electoral poll is even less useful at this point.

This election will be dominated by Iraq. Dems first said the strategy had failed. Now, some like you begrudgingly say it is better but temporary. You think it is tricky being for a long and difficult war you should try being for defeat in war.

People's perceptions change on a dime and if you think the majority of the country will pick a quasi socialist, nanny state, secular progressive, dovish policy then you can believe it. We will see.

Anonymous said...

I agree with your 2008 scenario Mike and have been telling people for months not to listen to these polls right now because they mean NOTHING. No one is much paying attention. If Guiliani wins, or Thompson, or less likely IMO, Romney they are going to skewer Hillary in any debate they have and it will be crystal clear how different, like night and day, how credible the one side is and how uncredible the other is on any reasonable issue based solely on the fact that Hillary's people can't be on stage to tell her the answers to any questions that will show her inexperience in doing ANYTHING AT ALL.

Mark my New Times Roman here, this will be the most LOPSIDED defeat in political history come election day and the Dem's better stop listening to the far left side of their party if they ever want to win another national election again. Dukakis will feel a lot better though...

mike volpe said...

They can't stop listening to the far left of their party because it is run by the most powerful force in politics today, George Soros. Of course, that is something that will be brought to the surface before this election season is over.